MARKET SNAPSHOT
| Index | Wed Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,432.97 | +1.08% |
| Dow Jones | 50,009.35 | +1.31% (+645 pts) |
| Nasdaq | 26,270.36 | +1.54% |
| WTI Crude | $98.26 | -5.66% |
| Brent | $105.02 | -5.63% |
⚠️ Futures this morning: Stock futures are lower and oil prices are higher on renewed energy supply concerns, after Iran’s supreme leader issued a directive to keep enriched uranium within the country, complicating prospects for a diplomatic resolution.
🔥 NVDA — The Definitive Breakdown
Q1 FY27 revenue: $81.6 billion (+85% YoY, +20% QoQ). Data Center: $75.2 billion (+92%). Zero China data center shipments this quarter, vs. $4.6 billion a year ago.
Q2 guidance: $91 billion — $4.2 billion above the Street’s $86.8B consensus. Board approved an $80B buyback and a 25x dividend hike to $0.25/share quarterly.
The China headline: Jensen Huang told CNBC: “The demand in China is quite large. Huawei is very, very strong.” He confirmed Nvidia has “largely conceded” China’s AI chip market to Huawei. This is the reason futures are softer — a $67B market by 2030, increasingly locked out.
Huawei’s Ascend 950PR entered mass production in March; its AI chip revenue could hit $12 billion in 2026. Morgan Stanley estimates Chinese domestic suppliers will account for $21 billion of China’s AI chip market this year, capturing ~60% share.
The bull case is consensus — everyone knows NVDA dominates. The bear case no one wants to say: if China is permanently lost and represents a $15B+ annual revenue hole by 2027, the $91B guide already has a ceiling baked in. Meanwhile Huang is in Beijing glad-handing and walking away empty-handed on sales. The market was right to sell the news overnight.
Trade setups:
- NVDA — Watch for post-earnings dip toward $210–215 support. Don’t chase. Pullback entry with stop $205, target $238+.
- AVGO, ALAB, AMD — downstream AI infrastructure beneficiaries, less China-exposed.
- Huawei/SMIC angle (US listed): No direct play, but MU benefits if HBM supply tightens globally as Huawei hoovers up Samsung/SK Hynix memory.
🛒 WALMART — Results Just Out
Revenue of $177.8 billion, up 7.3% (5.9% constant currency). Global eCommerce up 26%. Global advertising up 37%. Adjusted EPS $0.66, in line with consensus. Full-year FY27 guidance reiterated.
Q2 guidance: EPS $0.72–$0.74. Net sales constant-currency growth of 4–5%, operating income growth 7–10%.
A clean beat-and-hold. The tariff commentary and consumer tone from the call are what matter for the sector read-through to COST, TGT, DG, DLTR.
🚀 SpaceX S-1 — What You Need to Know
SpaceX filed its S-1 May 20, aiming to list on Nasdaq as SPCX. Q1 2026: $4.69B revenue, $1.94B operating loss, $1.13B adjusted EBITDA.
Anthropic is paying SpaceX $1.25 billion/month through 2029 for cloud compute. SpaceX seeks to raise $80 billion at a $1.7 trillion valuation — potentially the largest IPO ever.
IPO date set for approximately June 12, Nasdaq ticker SPCX. Musk holds 85.1% voting control via dual-class structure.
$4.9B net loss on $18.7B revenue for 2025. Operating losses are deepening post-xAI consolidation. The Anthropic contract is extraordinary but a single-client anchor. You’re being asked to pay 1.7T for a moonshot with massive cash burn, controlled entirely by one man who runs 5 other companies. The public will likely bid it up anyway — but the smart money exits into the hype.
🌏 ASIA — Today’s Session
Korea KOSPI: +8.4% 🚀 Samsung and its union reached a last-minute tentative wage deal, averting an 18-day walkout by 48,000 workers. Combined with Nvidia’s record quarterly profit, KOSPI soared over 8%, extending its extraordinary 80%+ YTD run.
Samsung Electronics +6%, SK Hynix +11%, SoftBank Group (Japan) +~20%.
Japan Nikkei: +3.5% Japan exports rose 14.8% in April — fastest since January — driven by semiconductor shipments. Nikkei reversed a five-session losing streak.
China: China’s April exports surged 14.1% YoY, imports +25.3%, both well above forecasts. Integrated circuit imports +54.7%, data processing equipment +90.6% — pure AI infrastructure demand. The AI buildout inside China is accelerating regardless of Nvidia’s access issues.
TSMC (TSM): Trading at $401.62, up 33% YTD. Next earnings July 16. Still the cleanest way to play global AI capex without China regulatory risk.
📰 KEY CHINA/ASIA HEADLINES
| Headline | US Ticker |
|---|---|
| Nvidia concedes China AI chip market to Huawei | NVDA ceiling risk; MU HBM tightness |
| China April imports +25.3%, IC imports +55% | AVGO, ALAB, AMAT |
| Samsung strike averted — tentative deal | MU relief; monitor June 7 re-negotiation |
| SoftBank +20% on AI momentum | Watch for ARM (SoftBank subsidiary) halo |
| Caixin: AI-driven investment may have limited job creation | Structural China consumption risk |
| Trump-Xi summit reshaping US cross-strait Taiwan calculus | TSM geopolitical watch |
📅 TODAY’S CALENDAR
- Walmart earnings call — 7am CT (results above, call language on tariffs is the key)
- Deere (DE), Ross Stores (ROST), Ralph Lauren (RL), Zoom (ZM) — reporting today
- Initial jobless claims — 8:30am ET
- IBM — shares surged 7.1% after the Commerce Department announced a $1 billion grant to accelerate quantum computing development
- Memorial Day Monday May 25 — US markets closed. Short week ahead.
